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Frankfurt, Germany – The stock market experts at the VÖB member institutions Manfred Bucher (BayernLB), Joachim Schallmayer (DekaBank), Markus Reinwand (Helaba), Uwe Streich (LBBW) and Wolfgang Donie (NordLB) take a confident look at the performance tables of the leading international equity indices. Positive signs predominate and, despite already favorable expectations, the year-end forecasts for the major share indices have already been achieved. These were fueled by the megatrend surrounding digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI) and driven by hopes of interest rate cuts in the near future.
The forecast for the DAX for the next twelve months is between 17,500 and 18,500 points. The average of all five stocks is 17,950 points. For the EURO STOXX 50, the institutes are forecasting values between 4,800 and 5,000 points, with an average of 4,866 points. The stock market experts see the Dow Jones at 37,500 to 38,400 points for the year, resulting in an average price of 38,113 points.
The VÖB stock market experts explain: "The global economy is growing robustly overall, although Germany is still lagging behind. In the USA, a strong labour market and strong wage growth are ensuring that consumer and corporate sentiment remains positive. In the eurozone, the service sector is proving to be a stable growth driver, while industry is struggling."
Against the backdrop of the negative factors, experts are forecasting a slight recovery in Germany this year. The growth forecasts for 2024 are between 0.0 and 0.8%. For 2025, expectations range between 1.0 and 1.3%. Economic growth in the eurozone is forecast to be between 0.5 and 1.0% this year, with a slight recovery to between 1.2 and 1.5% in the following year. For the USA, growth of 1.8 to 2.3% is expected for the current year and 1.9 to 2.5% for the coming year.
The VÖB stock market experts conclude: "On both sides of the Atlantic, the decline in inflation has been faltering for some time. We therefore do not expect the first interest rate cut before the middle of the year. The market is still uncertain about the sequence of subsequent interest rate cuts. However, falling interest rates and a revitalising global economy speak in favour of equities in the long term."
